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The Greatest Danger Is an Iranian Miscalculation

(Wall Street Journal) Walter Russell Mead - Amid all the talk about American decline, American power in the international system has actually grown. The U.S. has developed the ability to globalize unilateral sanctions. Washington doesn't need the support of its allies to isolate Tehran economically because "secondary sanctions" can effectively compel other countries to comply with the U.S. effort. The recent attacks in the Gulf of Oman, together with Iran's announcements that it will exceed the nuclear deal's limits on its supply of enriched uranium this month, signal that Tehran is trying some brinkmanship of its own. However, as long as the flow of oil from the Middle East is essentially unaffected by pinprick attacks and Iran refrains from an all-out nuclear effort, there is a strong argument for military restraint in Washington. The status quo is weakening Iran and improving the American bargaining position. While taking all necessary action to keep traffic moving freely in international waters, the administration's best option for now is to concentrate on tightening sanctions on Iran and its proxies. The greatest danger is an Iranian miscalculation. Any attack on U.S.-flagged ships or servicemen could force a strong military response. Tehran's imperial ambitions are at the root of this conflict. The writer is professor of foreign affairs and the humanities at Bard College.
2019-06-20 00:00:00
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