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War with Iran Is Not Inevitable

(Bloomberg) Hussein Ibish - Iran may have many options for unleashing mayhem against American interests and allies in the Middle East. But it also has a powerful reason to stop and reconsider. Beyond the expressions of outrage in Tehran lies the cold reality that Iran cannot afford a war with a far more powerful opponent. Any retaliation that leads to war will wreak enormous damage on the Islamic Republic. Even if it costs more American blood and treasure than President Trump imagines, the toll on the Iranian nation will be many magnitudes greater. That is an outcome the regime in Tehran has consciously been trying to avoid. The leaders of the Islamic Republic like to think of themselves as strategic thinkers, with a keen understanding of their opponents and a knack for anticipating their next moves. But they clearly misjudged Donald Trump. Convinced the American president would do anything to avoid a war, they have for months been provoking the U.S. with progressively more intense provocations. The Iranians can no longer be under any illusions about Trump's appetite to answer provocations with disproportionate force. Khamenei must know now "severe retaliation" by Iran could be met with an even more devastating American response. If the regime is rational, as it tends to be in a crisis, it will take the opportunity for a long pause in the pattern of escalation with the U.S., and find a new strategy that does not drag everyone towards a devastating conflict. The writer is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
2020-01-07 00:00:00
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