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The Killing of Soleimani Will Not Stop Iranian Aggression

(BESA Center for Strategic Studies-Bar-Ilan University) Col. (ret.) Dr. Raphael G. Bouchnik-Chen - It is not in dispute that Soleimani's killing was a blow to Iran's regional influence. It is doubtful, however, that his loss created an unfillable vacuum. The Quds Force's command structure, including its link with the IRGC leadership, creates reasonable conditions to maintain hierarchical continuity, including an immediate transfer of authority that does not entail a significant disruption of the chain of command. A sober consideration of Iran's strategy in the Middle East indicates that the killing of Soleimani will not affect Tehran's intention to continue to implement its aggressive regional policy, directly or through proxy organizations. As the Iranian leadership sees it, Tehran came out of this round of quasi-warfare with the U.S. with the upper hand. The impressive accuracy and substantial damage wrought by Iran's retaliatory missile attack on the Iraqi bases has considerably reinforced Tehran's deterrence. Declarations that the U.S. has "restored its deterrence" vis-a-vis Iran are therefore premature. The writer served as a senior analyst in IDF Military Intelligence.
2020-01-22 00:00:00
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