Daily Alert Archives

The Coronavirus Won't Kill the Islamic Republic

(Foreign Policy) Kenneth M. Pollack - It's true that, even before the outbreak of Covid-19, the Iranian regime had little legitimacy. However, the Islamic Republic has withstood repeated attempts at popular revolution by dint of force. The regime has shown itself willing to do whatever is necessary to keep itself in power, including assaulting, arresting, and killing its own citizens. As the history of revolutions has repeatedly demonstrated, they succeed only if the regime loses the will or the capacity to use force against the people. So far, the regime never has, and there is no evidence that the Covid-19 crisis has altered either its determination or its ability. There has never been a successful revolution without mass demonstrations. The fear of Covid-19 has effectively eliminated the potential for large-scale protests. Moreover, it has been the hard-liners, led by the IRGC, who have responded in the most appropriate fashion. They have been the ones arguing for travel bans, quarantines, social distancing, canceling of religious and cultural events, and government assistance to the distressed. Bizarrely, it has been the moderates and pragmatists, led by President Hassan Rouhani, who have insisted that the virus is not very dangerous and that people should go about their daily lives. Consequently, Iranians may see the hard-liners as the heroes of the story. The writer, a former CIA intelligence analyst who served on the National Security Council staff, is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.
2020-04-10 00:00:00
Full Article