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Iran Is Not Interested in Closing the Loopholes in the Nuclear Deal

(National Interest) Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit and Ari Heistein - One of Israel's key concerns with the Biden administration's approach to the Iranian nuclear question is that if the incoming administration follows through on its promise to return to the JCPOA once Iran returns to compliance, then the U.S. may find itself with limited incentives to induce Iran into making further concessions. In addition, Washington may discover that Iran is not interested in a more expansive deal than the one signed in 2015 and that Tehran does not intend to barter away the loopholes which it painstakingly negotiated in the previous agreement. Jerusalem should encourage Washington to withhold concessions that Iran views as vital during phase one so as to incentivize Tehran to commit to the second phase of negotiations. In addition, Israel should press the U.S. to maintain maximal economic leverage for phase two in order to create the conditions that allow for an agreement that restricts Iran's nuclear program to the greatest extent possible. Israel should push for an extension of the nuclear restrictions' "sunsets" by thirty years, a more intrusive "anytime anywhere" inspections regime, and greater restrictions on Iran's nuclear R&D. In light of the Abraham Accords, Israel should also seek to leverage its newfound partners in the region by developing a coordinated approach to U.S. policy on Iran based on a shared interest of reining in the Iranian threat. Iran's subversive activities throughout the Middle East cannot realistically be regulated by any document and must be countered on the ground by a U.S.-led coalition of regional allies both before and after a new nuclear deal has been reached. It is in America's interest to bring its Middle Eastern allies on board with its Iran policy. Failing to take the interests of regional partners into account may result in states taking independent steps to protect their vital interests. Eldad Shavit is a senior researcher at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies and previously served in senior roles in Israeli Defense Intelligence and the Mossad. Ari Heistein is a Research Fellow at INSS.
2021-01-07 00:00:00
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