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U.S. Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal Will Make the Middle East Less Stable

(Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security) Dr. Uzi Rubin - President Biden undertook to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal as is, with no preliminary negotiations on extending and strengthening it or on other issues of concern. It means the U.S. will lift Trump's sanctions in return for a rollback of Iran's violations. Critics believe that a new and improved nuclear deal is required, that will extend its duration, impose limitations on Iran's missile programs, and require Iran to moderate its regional policies. In the June 2021 presidential elections in Iran, all five contenders belong to the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is not unlikely that an Iranian president who hails from the IRGC will flatly refuse to promise or even hint at any further negotiations once the U.S. has lifted sanctions. Ever since the September 2019 devastating attack by Iranian UAVs on Saudi Arabia's oil installations, the awareness has grown among many observers that Iran's threat is not limited to its nuclear ambitions. Therefore, what is needed are limits on Iran's conventional capabilities too, including its entire spectrum of destabilizing weapon programs like ballistic missiles and UAVs. A U.S. return to the Obama nuclear deal, with no substantial correction of its weaknesses, will justifiably be regarded by the Ayatollahs as a historic victory. Iranian prestige and standing in the region will be enhanced immensely, and Iranian coffers will overflow with income from oil exports and renewal of international trade. Iran will be stronger and more dangerous, posing a growing existential threat to Israel and other Middle Eastern countries - even if its nuclear program is delayed for a while. The writer was founding director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, which managed the Arrow program.
2021-02-01 00:00:00
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