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A Return to the 2015 Iran Deal Is Impossible

(Jerusalem Post) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Jacob Nagel - The Iranian regime's nuclear advancements since the signing of the 2015 nuclear deal, coupled with Tehran's refusal to fully account for its previous nuclear activity, mean a return to the deal is mission impossible. In the end, the deal failed and cannot accomplish what its original architects intended. Iran is quickly moving toward industrial-scale production of second-generation (IR-2m and IR-4) and third-generation (IR-6, IR-8 and IR-9) centrifuges. These centrifuges are installed in Iran's Natanz underground facility, allowing the Iranians to dramatically accelerate enrichment. Regime scientists have learned to operate cascade configurations and, with this technology, can now enrich uranium three times faster and to all levels of enrichment. According to Iranian reports, the regime is installing IR-6s and perhaps other, more advanced, models at Iran's underground Fordow facility, which can enrich uranium 6 to 10 times faster. That know-how is there, no matter what's written in any nuclear accord. Long gone are the days when "breakout" would take Iran as much as a year. Moreover, the time it took Iran to reestablish enrichment facilities was much faster than calculated by the deal's negotiators. In the meantime, new revelations from the secret nuclear archive that Israel's Mossad spirited out of Iran in 2018 have made clear that the International Atomic Energy Agency's 2015 decision to close its investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program was a big mistake. The archive demonstrated that the Iranians are much closer to weaponization than previously assessed. Indeed, the IAEA's failures underscore how the nuclear deal is untenable in its current form. The agency's strict inspections were touted as the deal's most effective tool. Yet the agency proved reluctant to address violations and was unable to secure site visits in a timely manner. The writer served as head of Israel's National Security Council and as the prime minister's acting national security advisor.
2021-02-15 00:00:00
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