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Israel Braces for U.S. Revival of Iran Nuclear Deal

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Michael Herzog - On Jan. 26, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi publicly warned against returning to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. His remarks underscore the broad domestic Israeli consensus on three crucial points: that Tehran never abandoned its ambition to become nuclear-armed, that the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) left pathways open for realizing this ambition, and that a nuclear Iran would pose a grave threat to Israel. Citing historical precedent, Israelis argue that diplomacy and related incentives cannot block Tehran's path to a nuclear weapon unless they are constantly backed by robust disincentives and a demonstrated determination to follow through with them if needed. Israel's campaign against Iranian military entrenchment in Syria demonstrates that such assertiveness can push back against the regime's destabilizing activities abroad and at the same time deter it from escalating in response. However, Israel is skeptical that the U.S. will significantly increase the pressure if Tehran comes back into compliance with the JCPOA but refuses to move toward an enhanced deal. While Jerusalem is not rushing toward a public spat with the Biden administration over Iran policy, it is preparing for dialogue. Israeli officials believe that once they lay out their full findings from the captured Iranian nuclear archive, they will be able to make an impact on U.S. policy. In Israel's view, Iran cannot be permitted to acquire the capacity to come within short reach of the nuclear threshold, whereas the U.S. redline tends to be Tehran actually crossing that threshold and rushing toward a weapon. According to updated Israeli intelligence estimates, Iran's breakout time to produce enough weapons-grade fissile material for one bomb has shrunk to four months, and it would need 21-24 months for weaponization. The U.S. would do well to keep in mind that critical Israeli national security interests are at stake, and Israel's government is determined to protect them. The best approach for both governments is to enter a comprehensive, continuous, and discreet discussion that focuses on constructive ideas and shies away from public posturing. The writer, a fellow of the Washington Institute, served as head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division and chief of staff to the minister of defense.
2021-02-25 00:00:00
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