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(National Interest) Dennis Ross - The Biden administration understandably does not want to get into an escalating conflict with the Iranians - not in Iraq or elsewhere. But it also does not want to appear to be willing to live with increasing missile and drone attacks on us and others. Doing so - or moving to lift sanctions now - would validate the position of the Revolutionary Guard and the Qods Forces in Iran and that is a recipe for guaranteeing more Iranian pressure and less Iranian responsiveness. Wisely, the administration has made clear that it will not make unilateral concessions to the Iranians. But it will need to employ a mix of diplomatic and coercive options that create counter-pressures and keep the onus on Iran. This is about having Iran's leaders see that we are conditioning the environment to the reality that in the absence of diplomacy, force may ultimately have to be used to prevent Iran's march toward a nuclear bomb. The administration should forge a common public posture with our European allies and convey the message that so long as Iran breaches the agreement, refuses to come to a 5+1 negotiating forum, and directly or through its proxy militias launches rockets against U.S. forces or personnel, any sanctions relief is impossible. The Biden administration should consider taking a page from the Israeli playbook. Israel has launched countless air strikes against Iranian and Shia proxy targets in Syria but it rarely acknowledges them. Why not make that part of the American toolkit? The Iranians would get the message but would not be put in the position of feeling obliged to respond lest Tehran appears weak if it doesn't. We need the Supreme Leader to understand that the IRGC and Qods Forces are playing with fire and Iran is going to get burned if it does not stop. The writer, counselor at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, served in senior national security positions in four U.S. administrations.2021-03-18 00:00:00Full Article
Lifting Sanctions Now Will Guarantee More Iranian Pressure
(National Interest) Dennis Ross - The Biden administration understandably does not want to get into an escalating conflict with the Iranians - not in Iraq or elsewhere. But it also does not want to appear to be willing to live with increasing missile and drone attacks on us and others. Doing so - or moving to lift sanctions now - would validate the position of the Revolutionary Guard and the Qods Forces in Iran and that is a recipe for guaranteeing more Iranian pressure and less Iranian responsiveness. Wisely, the administration has made clear that it will not make unilateral concessions to the Iranians. But it will need to employ a mix of diplomatic and coercive options that create counter-pressures and keep the onus on Iran. This is about having Iran's leaders see that we are conditioning the environment to the reality that in the absence of diplomacy, force may ultimately have to be used to prevent Iran's march toward a nuclear bomb. The administration should forge a common public posture with our European allies and convey the message that so long as Iran breaches the agreement, refuses to come to a 5+1 negotiating forum, and directly or through its proxy militias launches rockets against U.S. forces or personnel, any sanctions relief is impossible. The Biden administration should consider taking a page from the Israeli playbook. Israel has launched countless air strikes against Iranian and Shia proxy targets in Syria but it rarely acknowledges them. Why not make that part of the American toolkit? The Iranians would get the message but would not be put in the position of feeling obliged to respond lest Tehran appears weak if it doesn't. We need the Supreme Leader to understand that the IRGC and Qods Forces are playing with fire and Iran is going to get burned if it does not stop. The writer, counselor at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, served in senior national security positions in four U.S. administrations.2021-03-18 00:00:00Full Article
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