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How the U.S. Could Empower Its Ally, Israel, to Deter Iran

(Bloomberg) Dennis Ross - With negotiations paused until a new hardline administration takes office in Tehran, the chances of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal anytime soon are not bright. Even successful talks might not stop Iran's leaders from pursuing nuclear weapons. Moreover, the fact that the Biden administration hopes to reach a "longer and stronger" follow-on agreement reflects its recognition that the JCPOA is not sufficient. If the U.S. cannot persuade Iran to temper its nuclear ambitions using carrots, which seems unlikely given Iran's determined pursuit of a large nuclear infrastructure, it must find more effective sticks. To start, the Biden administration should reframe its stated objective and be clear the U.S. is determined to stop Iran not just from acquiring a nuclear weapon, but from being able to produce a bomb quickly. Since Iran is a threat to its neighbors, it must not be in a position where it could effectively present the world with a nuclear weapons fait accompli at a time of its choosing. The U.S. must make the costs of pursuing a threshold capability far clearer. To do so, the Biden administration should consider providing Israel the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound mountain-buster, as well as leasing the B-2 bomber to deliver it. Such a weapon could be used to destroy Fordow, the underground Iranian enrichment facility, as well as other hardened nuclear sites. This would send a powerful message. The Iranians may doubt whether the U.S. would follow through on its threats; they won't have any trouble believing the Israelis will. The writer, who served in senior national security positions for four presidents, is counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
2021-07-26 00:00:00
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