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The Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran

(Foreign Policy) Dennis Ross - Like a military plan that seems to work until it encounters the enemy, the Biden administration's approach to Iran required the Iranians to go along - and they have shown they will not be a partner to the White House's plans. Instead, they have made their nuclear program far more threatening and in the process have raised questions about whether there is a diplomatic answer to it. They have been taking steps that have no justifiable civilian purpose: the enrichment of uranium to the 60% level and the production of uranium metal - actions that have no relationship whatsoever to the peaceful use of nuclear power. The loss of Iranian fear about what they can get away with on their nuclear ambitions is dangerous. It may produce a miscalculation on Iran's part about whether the U.S. might ever respond militarily and for sure makes a diplomatic outcome less likely. Unless the Iranians understand that the pathway they are on is dangerous for them, the probability of the use of force will go up. Certainly, the Israelis, believing the Iranian nuclear threat is existential, are more inclined to act. China needs a stable Middle East, not one disrupted by war, and an Iran on its current nuclear pathway toward a threshold weapons status risks precisely that. In 2009, during my time in the Obama administration, I was sent to Beijing, where I made the argument that neither country wanted to see a major conflict in the Middle East, yet Iran's nuclear program, if not contained, would produce that. To avoid that, China needed to be part of the effort to isolate Iran politically and economically - and it subsequently was. Moreover, neither the Russians nor the Europeans want to see Iran acquire or develop nuclear weapons. The Biden administration, while emphasizing its commitment to diplomacy, should say that if Iran makes a diplomatic outcome impossible, it risks its entire nuclear infrastructure. Beyond this, Biden needs to disabuse Iran of the notion that Washington will not act militarily and will stop Israel from doing so. If Washington wants to make the use of force against the Iranian nuclear program less likely, it is essential to restore deterrence. For that, Iran's leaders must believe either the U.S. or Israel will act militarily to destroy their massive investment in the nuclear program if they stay on the current path. The writer, who served in senior national security positions for four presidents, is counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
2021-11-01 00:00:00
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