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The Limits of a New Iran Nuclear Deal

(Foreign Affairs) Henry Rome - Negotiators appear close to an agreement to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, rolling back parts of Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for relief from severe U.S. sanctions. In its likely form, the deal will provide significant near-term economic benefits to Iran - allowing it to sell oil freely and reconnect to the global financial system. But any agreement will also suffer from the same shortfalls as its predecessor did six years ago. A new agreement will provide Iran with billions of dollars of additional revenue per month. Tehran will also be able to access more of its $100 billion in foreign exchange reserves held overseas. Yet the longevity of the nuclear deal is much more uncertain than it was in 2015. Top Republicans have promised to renege on the deal as soon as they retake the White House, potentially in 2025. If Republicans win control of the House and Senate in November, they will probably aim to throw as much sand in the gears of the agreement as possible. That could include new legislation to reimpose sanctions under terrorism or human rights authorities that were otherwise lifted under the new deal. Congressional pressure will intensify heading into the fall of 2023, when the agreement requires the U.S. to seek to repeal legislation imposing sanctions against Iran. Congress will almost certainly not fulfill this provision. The writer is Deputy Head of Research at Eurasia Group.
2022-03-10 00:00:00
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