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2022 Demographic Update: A Solid Jewish Majority West of the Jordan River

(JNS) Yoram Ettinger - Israel's Jewish fertility rate exceeds its Muslim fertility rate. In 2020, the Jewish fertility rate (number of births per woman) was 3.00, while the overall Arab fertility rate was 2.82. In 2021, Jewish births were 76% of total births. The unique growth in Israel's Jewish fertility rate is attributed to optimism, patriotism, attachment to Jewish roots, communal solidarity, the positive Jewish attitude toward raising children, and a frontier mentality. Israel's Arab life expectancy (78 for men and 82 for women) is similar to the U.S. life expectancy and higher than that of any Arab or Muslim country. Moreover, Palestinian census figures are inflated. Half a million Palestinians who have lived overseas for over a year are included in the population census, in violation of internationally accepted rules. 350,000 Jerusalem Arabs, who possess Israeli ID cards, are double-counted - included in the Israeli census and the Palestinian census. 150,000 Arabs from Gaza and the West Bank who married Israeli Arabs and received Israeli ID cards are also double-counted. The PA census ignores the annual net emigration of mostly young Arabs from the West Bank (28,000 in 2021). The number of Arab deaths in the West Bank has been systematically under-reported. For example, a recent Palestinian population census included Arabs who were born in 1845. In 2021, there was a 68% Jewish majority in the combined area of pre-1967 Israel and the West Bank (7.5 million Jews, 2 million Israeli Arabs and 1.5 million West Bank Arabs). Despite conventional wisdom, there is no Arab demographic time bomb. There is, however, an unprecedented Jewish demographic tailwind. The writer is a former ambassador and head of Second Thought: A U.S.-Israel Initiative.
2022-03-31 00:00:00
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