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Lebanon and Syria: A Single Northern Front but with Differences

(Alma Center) Yaakov Lappin - Both Lebanon and Syria are dominated by the Iran-led axis. Hizbullah in Lebanon, Hizbullah in Syria, Shi'ite militias in Syria, and the IRGC in Syria could coordinate their activities in a future war with Israel. In Lebanon, after a UN Security Council Resolution (1701) banned the presence of illegal weapons in the south of the country, Hizbullah has stockpiled more than 70,000 ballistic projectiles including 65,000 short-range rockets (45-200 km.), 5,000 long and mid-range missiles (200+ km.), and 145,000 mortars. It also has hundreds of precision guided missiles, surface-to-sea missiles, mini submarines, torpedoes, cruise missiles, and 2,000 UAVs. A future conflict with Hizbullah will not resemble the 2006 conflict. Hizbullah's capabilities are 20 times more developed today. The IDF's own capabilities are also far more advanced. Yet because Hizbullah's capabilities have grown monstrous in size, Israel exhibits great caution. In Syria, Israel has been able to prevent a great deal of Iran's intentions to build a terror army on Syrian soil and equip it with tens of thousands of rockets. Israel's relative preventative success in Syria means that should a multi-front war erupt, it would principally be focused on Lebanon, and fewer resources would be needed to deal with the threat from Syria. This is the essential reason why Israel must continue to "mow the lawn" in Syria consistently.
2022-04-07 00:00:00
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