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(The Hill) Frank Sobchak - Most scholars agree that allowing an aggressive, expansionist regime that has described Israel as a "one-bomb country" to acquire nuclear weapons would be reckless and suicidal. One rarely explored repercussion if Iran crosses the nuclear threshold is that Saudi Arabia will do everything possible not to be left behind. Saudi Arabia's nuclear program has both capability and intent. Saudi Arabia began building a 30-kilowatt research reactor in 2018, although they have an abundance of fossil fuels. Moreover, the Saudis have not agreed to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Saudi Arabia has 90,000 tons of unmined uranium, likely enough fuel for that reactor as well as a weapons program. There is credible evidence that the Saudis have an agreement with Pakistan to provide nuclear weapons in the event of a crisis such as Iran becoming a nuclear power. Saudi Arabia is long believed to have financed Pakistan's weapons program, which is assessed to have 160 warheads. Several U.S. and NATO officials indicated that a small subset of those weapons is earmarked for such a crisis. Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, observed that if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, "The Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb; they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring." Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bluntly noted in 2018, "Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible." There are indications that Turkey and the UAE are considering developing similar programs with the hope of establishing a deterrence. So Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon would be just the beginning of proliferation in an unstable region. We must consider such future nightmares while we debate what must be done now with Iran. The writer, a retired U.S. Army colonel, is a publishing contributor at the MirYam Institute in Israel. 2022-05-12 00:00:00Full Article
A Nuclear Iran Could Create a Middle East Nightmare
(The Hill) Frank Sobchak - Most scholars agree that allowing an aggressive, expansionist regime that has described Israel as a "one-bomb country" to acquire nuclear weapons would be reckless and suicidal. One rarely explored repercussion if Iran crosses the nuclear threshold is that Saudi Arabia will do everything possible not to be left behind. Saudi Arabia's nuclear program has both capability and intent. Saudi Arabia began building a 30-kilowatt research reactor in 2018, although they have an abundance of fossil fuels. Moreover, the Saudis have not agreed to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Saudi Arabia has 90,000 tons of unmined uranium, likely enough fuel for that reactor as well as a weapons program. There is credible evidence that the Saudis have an agreement with Pakistan to provide nuclear weapons in the event of a crisis such as Iran becoming a nuclear power. Saudi Arabia is long believed to have financed Pakistan's weapons program, which is assessed to have 160 warheads. Several U.S. and NATO officials indicated that a small subset of those weapons is earmarked for such a crisis. Amos Yadlin, the former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, observed that if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, "The Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb; they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring." Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bluntly noted in 2018, "Without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible." There are indications that Turkey and the UAE are considering developing similar programs with the hope of establishing a deterrence. So Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon would be just the beginning of proliferation in an unstable region. We must consider such future nightmares while we debate what must be done now with Iran. The writer, a retired U.S. Army colonel, is a publishing contributor at the MirYam Institute in Israel. 2022-05-12 00:00:00Full Article
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