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The Iran Nuclear Deal Is Losing Its Mojo

(Al-Monitor) Amb. James F. Jeffrey - The 2015 Iran nuclear deal's restraints on Iran's enrichment capabilities begin eroding in 2026 and are totally lifted by the end of 2030. Thus, in the next presidential term Iran will again be within a few months of a nuclear device capability. Buying relatively minimal time with a JCPOA return comes with costs: lifting the heavy American sanctions and giving international approval to whatever Iran does within an agreement increasingly less restraining. In negotiating the initial agreement, many saw it as transformational, that working with moderate Iranian leaders could change that nation's foreign policy. But few still see the JCPOA that way. A return to the JCPOA at best has time-limited technical advantages, but certainly not sufficient to base a whole regional policy on. With or without the JCPOA, an aggressive Iran on the cusp of nuclear weapons is becoming part of the region's security environment. The writer, Chair of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, served as U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey.
2022-05-26 00:00:00
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