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To Derail Iran's Regional Ambitions, Israel Is the Only Local Counterweight that Counts

(The Dispatch) Reuel Marc Gerecht - It has become painfully clear that even if the Biden administration can still conclude some new nuclear deal with Iran, stopping the regime's atomic ambitions seems a dreamscape. There is one Middle Eastern countries that might still derail its regional ambitions. Israel, which has unstoppable nuclear delivery means, via missiles, planes, and submarines, and armed forces that can move quickly, lethally, and reliably, is really the only local counterweight that counts. The Islamic Republic's unrelenting westward focus toward Arab lands inexorably leads to Israel, which is seen as a Western implant reinforcing pro-American Sunni Muslim rulers in the Middle East. Iran's theocracy defines its mission, in part, by its uncompromising hostility toward Israel. It's an excellent conjecture that Washington's major players in foreign affairs and national security want Israel to default to a doctrine of mutually assured destruction, an idea appealing to Americans who use the Cold War as the measure of nuclear success. Yet a nuclear-armed Iranian elite may become more aggressive, taking greater risks. Iranian intervention in Bahrain, that might well be welcomed by the numerous Shiites there, is perfectly conceivable. The writer, a former Iranian-targets officer in the CIA, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
2022-06-30 00:00:00
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