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The Impact of the War in Ukraine on Israel

(Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security) Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman - The war in Ukraine has led the West to wake up to the sudden reality of military threats. The prospect of a major contract for the sale of Israeli missile defense technology to Germany is one part of a broader pattern: enhancing Israel's position as a significant center of military production and innovation. This is often accompanied by a growing understanding of Israel's motivations and conduct in a dangerous strategic environment. Meanwhile, Iran's supply of drones to Russia for attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine makes it easier for Israel to make the case against concessions that would fuel Tehran's ambitions. Another important gain for Israel is the greatly increased rate of Jewish immigration from both Ukraine and Russia. The growing affinity between the regime in Iran and Putin's Russia seems to have led to a Western reassessment of the Iranian issue as a whole. On this point, Israeli messages, both in terms of intelligence information shared with Western partners and its public diplomacy decrying Iran's policies, may have helped move the needle. With Iran firmly aligning itself with the anti-Western camp forged by the war, the meaning of a nuclear deal changes. It is no longer a statesmanlike achievement for U.S. diplomacy, but a sign of fatal weakness in the face of a scheming, hostile player. The bottom line is that the global and regional reality created by the war strengthens Israel and enhances its international and regional standing. The writer, who held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years, is Vice President of the JISS.
2022-11-10 00:00:00
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