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The Iranian Challenge Intensifies, while the International System Seems Otherwise Engaged

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Sima Shine and Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit - In the face of ongoing stagnation in the nuclear talks, Iran continues to advance its nuclear program, while continuing to provide military aid to Russia in the war with Ukraine. Iran for the first time announced the start of uranium enrichment to 60% at the Fordow underground plant and the replacement of old IR-1 centrifuges at this facility with advanced IR-6 centrifuges, which can enrich more quickly and in greater amounts. After years when the nuclear issue was prioritized over other issues related to Iran, the West is forced to formulate policy that relates to the Iranian aid to Russia and the regime's violent suppression of the ongoing protests. Even if in their view the diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue is still a priority, Iran's conduct in the other spheres will make it very difficult to progress on this. Consequently, the chance of returning to the nuclear agreement at the current time is very slim. The reality, in which Iran is taking aggressive and defiant steps without facing a determined response from the U.S. and its allies, reflects an increasing sense of confidence in Tehran, which rests in part on the assessment that the agenda of the U.S. (and Europe) is focused on the war in Ukraine alongside the main conflict with China, and that Iran as an issue is not high on the list. Tehran's assessment is that it can continue its policies without fear of any harm. From Israel's perspective, even if Iran is far from decided on whether to progress toward producing nuclear weapons, it is critical already now to create sufficient deterrence that will make it difficult for Iran to take further steps to advance the enrichment system and the levels of enrichment, and certainly to decide on a weapons program. It is possible that Iran's defiant conduct and the protests in its territory will make it somewhat easier for Israel to enlist the U.S. administration and the international community in taking action accordingly. To this end, it is recommended that the new government of Israel maintain an environment of relations that enables discreet and practical dialogue with Washington, which will be necessary in order to coordinate the required steps. It is important that Israel work to convince the U.S. of the need to create outside-the-box measures that, even without declaring red lines, will strengthen deterrence against Iran and undermine Iran's confidence regarding the possible price that will be exacted from it, if it continues to advance its nuclear program. Sima Shine, head of the Iran program at INSS, was head of the Research and Evaluation Division at the Mossad (2003-2007). Col. (res.) Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at INSS, previously served in senior roles in Israeli Defense Intelligence and the Mossad.
2022-12-12 00:00:00
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