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Months of Protest Have Forged an Even More Intransigent Iranian Regime

(Foreign Affairs) Vali Nasr - The demonstrations in Iran have posed the most significant threat to the government since 1979. Popular anger is still mounting, and dire economic conditions make further unrest all but inevitable. While some insiders have called for meaningful change if the Islamic Republic is to weather the storm, there is no evidence that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is listening. The regime is even more intransigent and potentially aggressive than ever before. Khamenei views the protests as a U.S. conspiracy, hatched in concert with Israel and Saudi Arabia, to topple the Islamic Republic. He witnessed firsthand how accommodating protesters only hastened the collapse of the monarchy in 1979. Iran has responded to its deepening international isolation by drawing closer to Russia. Media outlets connected to the IRGC reported last month that Iran will receive two dozen advanced Russian Sukhoi Su-35 air defense fighters by March and is looking to acquire helicopters and an advanced S-400 air defense system, which is capable of tracking F-35 stealth fighter jets. Such acquisitions would significantly boost Iran's military capability to better counter Israeli air power in Syria. The writer is Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
2023-02-09 00:00:00
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