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Iran's Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Michael Singh - Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have discovered that Iran had enriched uranium to a level just shy of weapons-grade. This revelation underscores the need for a new U.S. and European policy toward Iran. Washington and its partners need to activate the "snapback" mechanism of the 2015 Iran deal (JCPOA), and governments must heighten their efforts to deter Iran through credible threats of military force. The steps Tehran has taken look like preparations to quickly build nuclear weapons. Iran has: expanded its stockpile of enriched uranium, put more centrifuges in operation, enhanced the efficiency of its centrifuges, increased the number of enrichment sites, experimented with enriching to high levels in a single step rather than multiple steps, transferred high-enriched uranium to a site in Isfahan capable of turning uranium hexafluoride gas into metal (a key step in weapons manufacture), and obstructed nuclear inspectors. Iran's enrichment to 84% serves as a trial balloon to determine how the U.S., Europe, and Israel will react to it crossing the weapons-grade threshold. Tehran will undoubtedly be watching whether these states are ready to act or looking for excuses to avoid doing so, and whether their response is coordinated or marked by infighting. Whatever its intentions, Tehran may have unwittingly done the U.S. and its partners a favor with its latest move: dispelling the illusory notion that the nuclear issue could be "parked." The Iranian regime must be disabused of any notion that it now has a window of impunity for producing nuclear weapons. The U.S. and the E3 should exercise the JCPOA's snapback provision on international sanctions to send a powerful diplomatic message that they are unified. At the same time, the U.S. should provide Israel with the materiel it requires to act independently against Iran - for example, tanker aircraft for aerial refueling - with advance U.S.-Israel agreement on the triggers for attacking nuclear sites with said equipment. The writer, Managing Director of the Washington Institute, served as Senior Director for Middle East Affairs on the U.S. National Security Council.
2023-03-02 00:00:00
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