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Military Consequences of a Gaza Ceasefire Collapse

[Washington Institute for Near East Policy] Jeffrey White - Hamas used the period after Israel's August 2005 withdrawal to expand its forces to the point where it could prevail over Fatah and emerge as the only serious military and political power in Gaza. With Israel gone and Fatah defeated, Hamas gained control of Gaza's military and intelligence resources and infrastructure once controlled by the PA. The subsequent ceasefire agreement created even better conditions for Hamas' military ambitions by freeing the organization from the threat of Israeli raids and incursions. Egypt's failure to secure its side of the border also facilitated Hamas' buildup. Hamas aspires to emulate the military capabilities of Hizbullah. According to Israel's director of military intelligence, Hamas' defensive preparations in Gaza are "based on subterranean fortifications, explosive devices, and snipers." In future clashes, the IDF would be confronted with a better organized and trained force with more sophisticated arms, especially antitank weapons, and improved defenses. Despite its military improvements and ambitions, Hamas could not stand up to the IDF in an all-out fight. But there is little likelihood of such a direct conflict. The writer, a defense fellow at The Washington Institute, is a former career intelligence officer.
2008-11-21 01:00:00
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