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Israel and Biden Shouldn't Panic over Iran-Saudi Deal

(Ha'aretz) Amb. Daniel B. Shapiro - The images of Iranian and Saudi officials signing a deal in Beijing to resume diplomatic relations hinted dramatically at the beginning of a new phase of Chinese involvement in the Middle East. Immediately, questions were raised about an erosion of the Israeli-Arab front against Iran and about a Chinese challenge to U.S. leadership in the region. But upon closer inspection, the agreement, and China's role in it is nothing to jump off a bridge over. The full half of the glass sees reducing Iranian-Saudi tensions as a goal the U.S. has endorsed. If implemented, it could help bring an end to the war in Yemen and end, for now, the threat of Houthi missile and drone attacks against Saudi targets. Both China and the Saudis are taking the risky bet of Iranian good intentions. While Iran has at various times chosen to de-escalate tensions, driven by short-term considerations, there is zero indication of a change in the strategic goals of the regime in Tehran. Those goals include regional dominance, and the sustained intimidation of all other parties in the region to accept it. That goal is buttressed by Iran's nuclear program, which continues to expand, to the point where Iran has effectively achieved the status of a nuclear threshold state. Will the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement survive the first reversion to form by Iran to carry out its unchanged strategic vision? The writer, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, served as U.S. Ambassador to Israel from 2011 to 2017.
2023-03-13 00:00:00
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