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A New Iran Nuclear Deal Might Be on the Horizon

(Washington Post) Dennis Ross - Is the Biden administration's strategy on Iran's nuclear ambitions drifting dangerously from prevention to containment? Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, former head of the Foreign Policy and National Security Committee in the Iranian parliament, claims that unwritten understandings have already been reached. The Biden administration will allow "the release of some of Iran's frozen funds in return for Iran refraining from expanding its nuclear program more than the current level," he said. Iran has already accumulated five bombs' worth of uranium enriched to 60% - a level that Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, says has "no justifiable civilian purpose." If the Iranians continue at their current pace, they will have 10 bombs' worth of near-weapons-grade fissile material by the end of 2023. Allowing the Iranians to enrich to 60% while allowing them to make their nuclear facilities invulnerable to attack amounts to the U.S. shifting from a policy of prevention to a policy of containment. Given Jewish history, no Israeli government is going to wait and accept the possibility of losing the military means to prevent a perceived existential threat. The Biden administration must structure any forthcoming deal with prevention - not containment - as its goal. President Biden should make it clear that if the U.S. sees Iran moving toward a weapon, he is prepared to destroy the 40-year investment Iran has made in building its nuclear infrastructure. The U.S. should conduct exercises in the region rehearsing attacks against hardened targets to underline its seriousness. And if the U.S. is to reduce the Israeli impulse to preempt, the Biden administration should provide the Israelis with more powerful bunker busters and aerial refuelers to reduce Israel's need to act sooner rather than later. This would also send a message to Iran that if it violates the understanding or if it presses ahead with hardening, we will not hold the Israelis back. The writer, a former special assistant to President Barack Obama, is the counselor at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
2023-06-26 00:00:00
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