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Hamas' Grave Miscalculation on How Israel Would React

(Israel Hayom) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - Hamas hopes a ceasefire will compel Israel to change its war objectives and revert to the softer approach that Hamas initially believed Israel would follow right after the Oct. 7 massacre. I believe that Hamas leaders were convinced that the Israeli response would focus on targeted airstrikes and perhaps even a limited ground maneuver. But they never anticipated that Israel would launch an all-out undertaking to eliminate Hamas along with retaking Gaza. Hamas assessed that Israel's problematic relations with the U.S., coupled with its inherent reluctance to pay the high price involved in a broad military operation to remove Hamas from Gaza, would ultimately prevent it from completely defeating Hamas, just like in previous flare-ups. This time Israel adopted a different approach. Most Western leaders understand the importance of Israel's success in undermining Hamas and the moral justification for it. As the fighting continues, Israel will need to remind Western leaders that letting Hamas stay in power would be beyond the pale and that Israel can bring about its demise within a reasonable time without causing a humanitarian disaster in Gaza or leading to actions that would escalate into a regional war. The writer, former head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence, is Director of the Project on Regional Middle East Developments at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
2023-11-16 00:00:00
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