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The Israel-Iran Endgame

(New Statesman-UK) John Jenkins interviewed by Katie Stallard - John Jenkins, the former director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Foreign Office in London, said senior Israelis refer to the conflict between Israel and Hamas as a paradigm shift. The Israelis realize the policy they have pursued for the past two decades, of seeking to "mow the grass" - periodically debilitating Hamas and Hizbullah in small-scale conflicts - has essentially collapsed. They now cannot tolerate a Gaza which is under Hamas control. That also means that they will not be able to tolerate the sort of presence that Hizbullah has established over the last 23 years in southern Lebanon. The Iranians see great virtue in strategic patience. They think Israel will eventually disappear because it is divinely ordained: their duty is to help it along, but not to provoke a regional conflict - particularly with two U.S. carrier groups off the coast of Lebanon and Israel - that would precipitate a major U.S.-Israeli attack on key Iranian assets, in Iraq, Syria, or indeed in Iran itself. Israel is a very powerful mobilizing issue for Iran because a lot of these Shiite militias think the destruction of Israel is necessary to facilitate the return of the Hidden Imam. Shiism has this belief in the return of the Twelfth Imam, who will come back at the end of time as a Mahdi, bringing about the destruction of Israel, the destruction of the Jews. The Iranians want the U.S. out of the Middle East. There are severe obstacles to this: one is the presence of Israel, which they believe will be expelled from the region like the Crusaders. This isn't going to happen, but that doesn't mean they don't believe it. How do you negotiate with a state which believes that this is divinely ordained and just needs to be helped on its way?
2023-11-20 00:00:00
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