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Realism Must Rule in Engaging Syria

[ Boston Globe] Michael Bergman - The debate over whether or not to engage Syria is once again center stage this week as a Syrian delegation visits Washington. What should America ask from Syria in their negotiations? Many policy analysts argue that the "low-hanging fruit" is an Israeli-Syrian peace treaty. They recommend requiring Syria to actively pursue a peace treaty with Israel in return for full U.S. engagement and resumption of full diplomatic relations. However, a look at the political dynamics in Israel reveals that such an agreement would not be imminent. The Israeli Parliament is considering a law that will require the government to bring any agreement pertaining to a withdrawal from the Golan Heights to a national referendum. The issue of relinquishing the Golan Heights encounters three significant barriers. The first is a strong grass-roots lobby on behalf of Israel maintaining the Golan. The second is a lack of urgency in the Israeli public to resolve this dispute due to the absence of an occupied population in this area - significantly different from the approach to the West Bank. The third is that the Israeli public views a withdrawal from the Golan as a significant security risk. Syrian leaders have other items of higher priority on their agenda before a peace agreement with Israel. More important for them is regaining their dominance over Lebanon and breaking out of their international isolation through full engagement with the U.S. Syria must choose between its top priorities. If Assad wants to pursue domination over Lebanon and his support for Hizbullah, he should find no friend in Washington. However, if he wants to engage the U.S., he would need to end the weapons flow to Hizbullah, demarcate his borders with Lebanon, and establish full diplomatic relations with it - treating it as a fully sovereign state. The Syrians are not eager to "give up" their attempts at domination over Lebanon. But using the leverage of a U.S.-Syrian relationship is the best way to achieve this American interest.
2008-07-23 01:00:00
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