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(The Hill) Mark Mellman - If pollsters asked, "Do you favor or oppose world peace?" I'd wager they'd find 90% in favor. When a pollster asks, "Do you support or oppose the U.S. calling for a permanent ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza," why wouldn't the average, poorly informed citizen say, "Yes, I favor the U.S. calling for a permanent ceasefire"? However, given a little more information, people have a very different reaction. My firm found that 61% believe "Israel should only agree to a ceasefire with Hamas after Hamas has been disarmed and dismantled and the hostages they took are released." Moreover, a 54% majority said, "any outcome that leaves Hamas in charge of Gaza is unacceptable," while 59% believe "any outcome that fails to free all the hostages Hamas kidnapped is unacceptable." People like world peace and ceasefires. But understanding how voters make the tradeoffs can be much more illuminating. The writer served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel. 2024-01-12 00:00:00Full Article
The Pitfalls of Polling about a Gaza Ceasefire
(The Hill) Mark Mellman - If pollsters asked, "Do you favor or oppose world peace?" I'd wager they'd find 90% in favor. When a pollster asks, "Do you support or oppose the U.S. calling for a permanent ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza," why wouldn't the average, poorly informed citizen say, "Yes, I favor the U.S. calling for a permanent ceasefire"? However, given a little more information, people have a very different reaction. My firm found that 61% believe "Israel should only agree to a ceasefire with Hamas after Hamas has been disarmed and dismantled and the hostages they took are released." Moreover, a 54% majority said, "any outcome that leaves Hamas in charge of Gaza is unacceptable," while 59% believe "any outcome that fails to free all the hostages Hamas kidnapped is unacceptable." People like world peace and ceasefires. But understanding how voters make the tradeoffs can be much more illuminating. The writer served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel. 2024-01-12 00:00:00Full Article
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