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Gaza's "Day After": A Year of Low-Intensity Warfare

(New York Times) Steven Erlanger - There is increasing talk of some "day after" formula for Gaza, but there is not going to be a bright line between war and peace there. Israel has made it clear that it will not subcontract security along its border to anyone else. The vision is a managed intermittent conflict without a large permanent Israeli presence, said Yediot Ahronot columnist Nahum Barnea. The military envision a situation akin to that in the northern West Bank cities of Nablus and Jenin, where the IDF goes wherever it wants. It envisions operating from a buffer zone inside Gaza, now being constructed, and going deeper into the territory from time to time on specific operations, based on intelligence. While President Biden has said he would like a "revitalized Palestinian Authority" eventually running Gaza, at a minimum this would require the retirement or "emeritus" status of the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, internal reform, and some form of Palestinian elections, senior American officials say. But new elections would almost surely result in some political role for Hamas. Yaakov Amidror, a former general and national security adviser, said he sees 2024 as a year of low intensity warfare. The next year or 18 months will be dedicated to finding and destroying Hamas tunnels, infrastructure and fighters. At the end, by mid-2025, he believes Hamas will no longer have military and political capacity to run Gaza. And the Israeli army may be in a position to operate in Gaza along the lines of its West Bank model. There is a long road ahead to a true "day after."
2024-01-26 00:00:00
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