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Why the West Can't Deter Iran

(Ynet News) Dan Zamansky - The single dominant idea within Western commentary on the subject of the proper response to Iran's continuing attacks is the danger of escalation and the consequent need to avoid it. The practical implication of this nonsensical approach is that any aggressor, not just Iran, can attack the West, and then be shielded from effective countermeasures by the perceived necessity to avoid a so-called escalatory cycle. In substance, concerns about escalation have become a ready excuse for either complete inaction or insufficient action, in the face of attack on Western interests. The West's de-escalation obsession is part of a larger problem, a desire for a diplomatic solution to resolve security crises as if by magic. Michael Oren has diagnosed the consequences, that "by showing fear, rather than backbone, in the face of Iranian aggression, the U.S. is only inviting defeat." Israel's actions show how Iran can be dealt with. Multiple air strikes in Syria which have killed its military personnel have led Iran to withdraw senior officers from the country, and demonstrate its aversion to being sucked directly into a conflict. To put this more clearly, Iranians do not like to have their officers killed and are afraid that Israel will kill many more if Iran were to attack Israel directly. It is most unfortunate that American policy is currently incapable of following such a course of sustained military pressure, reflecting the West's continuing unwillingness to attack its enemies with sufficient strength and intensity. The futility of the limited strikes so far carried out against Yemen is brought into sharp relief by the fact that since the first strikes on January 11, sailings through the Red Sea have continued to decline. The situation cannot continue as it is. Either the course of Western policy will change, or Iran and others will assume that the West has become completely incapable of defending itself effectively, and all Western and pro-Western forces in the Middle East will come under continuously growing pressure. The writer is a British-Israeli historian.
2024-02-08 00:00:00
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