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The Road to a Gaza Ceasefire Leads through the Rafah Offensive

(Newsweek) Jacob Stoil and John Spencer - When Hamas attacked and invaded Israel, it did so knowing there would be a massive response by Israel and an operation into Gaza. It knew many Gazan civilians would die, indeed they counted on it, referring to their population as a "nation of martyrs." Hamas' hope is that repeated attacks like Oct. 7 will eventually break the will of the Israeli population. To do that, Hamas would need to survive the war. Hamas saw that if the U.S. could be made uncomfortable enough with the continuing war, it would put more pressure on Israel to wind down operations. Hamas believes the U.S. will keep Israel out of Rafah, enabling Hamas to walk away with a strategic victory and emerge as the only Palestinian organization to defeat Israel. Without the realistic threat of an Israeli operation in Rafah, Hamas has no reason to seek a ceasefire, and given Hamas' strategy, there can be no truly lasting ceasefire if Hamas can return to control Gaza. Hamas' unwillingness to negotiate is entirely dependent on the U.S. acting as Hamas wants. Dr. Jacob Stoil is the Chair of Applied History at the West Point Modern War Institute, where Maj. (ret.) John Spencer is Chair of Urban Warfare Studies.
2024-03-12 00:00:00
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