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How the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers

(Tablet) Abraham Wyner - The Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry now claims more than 30,000 dead since the start of Hamas' war on Israel, the majority of which it says are children and women. The problem is the numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters. From Oct. 26 until Nov. 10, 2023, the Gaza Health Ministry released daily casualty figures that included both a total number and a specific number of women and children. The numbers increase with almost metronomical linearity, while one would expect quite a bit of variation day to day. There should be days with twice the average and others with half. Similarly, we should see variation in the number of child casualties that tracks the variation in the number of women. On the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported. The lack of correlation suggests the numbers are not real. Taken together, the evidence is highly suggestive that a process unconnected or loosely connected to reality was used to report the numbers. The writer is Professor of Statistics and Data Science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
2024-03-18 00:00:00
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