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Does the U.S. Need a Palestinian State?

(The Hill) Russell A. Berman - As the war in Gaza grinds on, the Biden administration has signaled interest in establishing a Palestinian state. Yet it is vital to recognize that the two-state solution has little support in the region itself from either side. The Israeli Cabinet, including both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his political rivals, has rejected a unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state without direct negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel. Not surprisingly, since the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, the Israeli public has grown more hawkish, with at least 2/3 opposing a Palestinian state. Meanwhile in the West Bank and Gaza, there is no clear majority for an independent Palestine side by side with Israel. There is, however, very clear indication of widespread support for Hamas, according to a December poll. This disconnect between Washington's policy aspirations and genuine public opinion in the region shows how this quixotic effort lacks credible realism. That a sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank hills overlooking the Israeli population centers around Tel Aviv would represent a security threat to Israel is clear. Moreover, the implications for Jordan could be dire. A "free Palestine" will send shock waves to Amman. Instability in Jordan will then turn into opportunities both for terrorist factions that will spill over from Syria and Iraq, or for Iranian intrusion. In addition, the likely political character of the Palestinian state is cause for concern. Once elections take place, it is very likely that Hamas will come to power. Does Washington really want to build such a state as a platform for Hamas' Islamist radicalism? A Hamas-dominated Palestine is sure to ally with Iran, whose influence would then extend throughout the region. It should not be hard to understand that building the Iranian bloc is not in American national interest. Forcing Israel to accept the security threat that a Palestinian state will inevitably represent will harm America's reputation throughout the Middle East and beyond. If Washington suddenly chooses to reverse course on Israel, other partners will question the reliability of American promises. How Washington treats Israel will be watched closely around the world. The question of a Palestinian state is not only a question of an abstract principle of a right to national self-determination, since that ideal ought to apply equally for the Kurds and the Sikhs as well. For the U.S., the Palestinian question should be foremost about the effectiveness of American power in the region - particularly with regard to Iran. The writer is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
2024-03-18 00:00:00
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