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Hizbullah Stumbles into a War of Attrition

(Wall Street Journal) David Daoud - Hizbullah began attacking northern Israel on Oct. 8 to support Hamas. Yet by attacking Israel, Hizbullah embroiled itself in a war of attrition that it neither envisioned nor wanted. The fighting, according to the group's tally, has cost it nearly 300 men, exposed its arsenal in Lebanon to Israeli attacks, and displaced thousands of its supporters. The clashes are harming it more than its adversary. Poverty and chaos have engulfed Lebanon in recent years. The country's economy imploded in 2019 and hasn't fully recovered. Lebanese citizens, including Hizbullah's supporters, struggle to get food, electricity, and other necessities. Hizbullah's leaders are wary of the Lebanese street, whose financial miseries would only worsen if Hizbullah's fighting provoked a conflagration with Israel. At the same time, the group's arsenal inside Lebanon has ballooned, and its political and social power has become nearly uncontestable. Oct. 7 demonstrated the lethal risk to Israel of trying to manage an opponent that is simultaneously planning to launch an attack at the right moment. Notwithstanding its hesitations, Hizbullah has no intention of ending its pursuit of Israel's destruction. The group is essentially waiting until its domestic situation, and those of its patron and allies, is more stable and its capabilities more lethal - ideally under an Iranian nuclear umbrella. The writer is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
2024-05-02 00:00:00
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