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Hamas Is Playing for Time

(Spectator-UK) Jonathan Spyer - Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, his brother Mohammed, and Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif are almost certainly not currently besieged in a bunker in Rafah. In fact, it is not even certain if the Hamas leaders and their hostages are still in the Rafah area and a battle in the town would not necessarily represent Sinwar's last roll of the dice. While a failure to go into Rafah more or less guarantees an Israeli strategic defeat in the war, entry into the town does not make Israeli victory a sure thing. Victory requires the taking of Rafah, but also additional successes. The situation in Gaza is subjecting Israel to an ongoing erosion in its international standing. It has returned the Palestinian issue to front and center. Hamas will also be aware of the waves of pro-Hamas protests in European and American campuses and capitals. Hamas' Gazan leadership is doubtless also aware of the strains being placed on relations between the U.S. and Israel, as a result of sharp differences over next military steps. It is in Hamas' interest to allow all these processes to continue and deepen. As a result, Hamas leaders will continue to play for time, confident that it is at present on their side.
2024-05-09 00:00:00
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