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Biden's "Grand Bargain" Illusion Starts at Rafah

(Jerusalem Post) Gerald M. Steinberg - Many Israelis, as well as American politicians and Jewish leaders, denounced President Biden for going back on his emphatic pledges to do everything necessary to help Israel defend itself, defeat Hamas and return the hostages. A look at the details suggests this was part of a carefully planned U.S. strategy, under the heading of a Grand Bargain for the Middle East. This dream scenario has been in the background of Administration policies for months. The essential elements include an "irrevocable commitment" to Palestinian statehood, a large-scale Israeli withdrawal on the West Bank, and a formal Saudi-Israeli peace agreement echoing the Abraham Accords. It begins in Rafah, through orchestrating a stalemate and ceasefire that prevents Israel from totally defeating and uprooting Hamas. The problem is that the entire scenario is built on a foundation of wishful thinking, not history and political realism. The 1993 Oslo "peace" plan was based on the same illusions, and ended in the Second Intifada, in which over 1,000 Israelis were murdered in mass bombings, and thousands more died on the Palestinian side. For Hamas, the freezing of weapons deliveries, the wider conflict between Washington and Jerusalem, and demands for a ceasefire on their terms are a huge gift. Their propagandists, including the campus groups, interpret the Biden freeze as a great victory, encouraging these activists to continue and escalate the campaign of chaos and hate. In Tehran, regime leaders draw strength from the very visible American constraints placed on Israel, including after the Iranian missile attack on Israel on April 13. Most Israelis understand the massive gap between optimistic dream scenarios and political realism. Israeli territorial withdrawals from West Bank cities in 1994, southern Lebanon in 2000, and Gaza in 2005 have ended with mass terror and slaughter. Withholding munitions to prevent the IDF from entering Rafah will lead to increased Palestinian determination to attack Israel. The writer, emeritus professor of political studies at Bar Ilan University and president of NGO Monitor, is a fellow of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs.
2024-05-12 00:00:00
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