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The American Administration Is Guilty of Wishful Thinking

(Jerusalem Post) Efraim Inbar - The American administration sees the war in Gaza as an opportunity to build a regional defense architecture against Iran. In its view, Saudi Arabia, after signing a defense treaty with the U.S., will develop the military capability to stand up to Iran and will join the Abraham Accords. For its part, Israel will have to commit to a path to a Palestinian state, while the Palestinians will have to undertake major political reforms. Unfortunately, some of the assumptions behind this American plan are misplaced. Every defense alliance is based on the deterrent capability and willingness of the lead member of the alliance to employ military force. As we have seen, the U.S., despite its strength, has failed to deter Iran from operating its proxies against American forces in Syria and Iraq. The Houthis, an additional Iranian proxy, opened fire on ships in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, an important international waterway, and were not deterred by limited American strikes. In addition, the American policy shift aimed at holding Israel back and preventing it from defeating Hamas does nothing to shore up the fragile trust that the moderate Arab countries - who wish to see an Israeli victory - have in the U.S. Moreover, despite a warning from the U.S. president, Iran launched a direct missile and drone attack on Israel. Without American willingness to confront Iran militarily - a necessary component of deterrence - the Arab states will not be convinced that the U.S. will come to their defense in the event of Iranian aggression. Nor does the American obsession with a Palestinian state serve its alliance-building. Hamas, an Iranian ally, has a good chance of taking over the state that the Americans are eager to establish. This state would be a Trojan horse. Moreover, the chances of a fundamental change in Palestinian politics are minimal. Such a Palestinian state would not be much different from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Yemen. In addition, the assumption that the Saudis, who until now have bought their influence with their riches, will now become fierce fighters, is problematic. The writer is president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security and chairman of the Department of Strategy, Diplomacy, and Security at Shalem College.
2024-05-16 00:00:00
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