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Possible Strategies for Israel in Gaza

(Channel 12-Hebrew, 11July2024) Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser - As Israel completes the current stage of the war in Gaza, it faces three possible strategies for achieving its announced objectives: the collapse of Hamas's military and government, freeing all of the hostages, and the creation of a new reality in Gaza that will prevent it from becoming a base to attack Israel in the future. Strategy A: A deal with Hamas to end the war. This strategy requires Israel to accept Hamas's conditions for freeing the hostages, including an end to the war and the early withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. The practical meaning of this strategy is to allow Hamas to continue to govern Gaza. It would signal Israel's acceptance of Hamas as the victor in the war, showing the world that the strategy that served as the basis for Hamas's decision to start the war against Israel was vindicated and correct. Hamas's victory would be seen as a huge achievement and it would expand Iran's influence in the region. It would also strengthen Hamas among the Palestinians. Strategy B: Continuing military pressure. This strategy views the primary effort in Gaza as continuing the military pressure on Hamas in order to bring about its eventual dismantling, involving pinpoint attacks that will cause serious harm to the terror organization and bring it to accept a deal for the return of the hostages. Israel would maintain full responsibility for the fight against terrorists in Gaza and will maintain its presence in the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border and in the Netzarim corridor that now divides Gaza in two, as well as in the perimeter that surrounds Gaza. However, this strategy would leave Hamas as the ruler of most of the territory of Gaza and of most of the population, giving a boost to Hamas and Iran. It also completely ignores a basic problem - the need to change the Palestinian narrative, known as deradicalization. Strategy C: Control and dismantling. This strategy aims to act with full force to replace Hamas's military and governmental rule - initially with Israeli military rule. This is necessary so that in a relatively short time, after it becomes clear that Hamas rule will not be returning, it will be possible to transfer most of the civilian responsibilities to Palestinians who are not connected to terror and to international and Arab players who will deal with the reconstruction of Gaza. This will bring about the freeing of the hostages due to military pressure, in a deal where Israel allows Hamas's leaders and remaining forces to leave Gaza. Such a strategy will improve Israel's strategic position and serve as a serious blow to Iran, both in the region and among the Palestinians. It would also strengthen Israel's position opposite Hizbullah and enable progress toward deradicalization to create a possibility of change in the long term. The writer, Director, National Security and Middle East Affairs at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, is former head of the IDF Military Intelligence Research Division.
2024-07-14 00:00:00
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