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Israel's Actions in Beirut and the Alleged Operation in Tehran Were Taken after Careful Deliberation

(Ynet News) Ron Ben-Yishai - The preemptive targeting of Hizbullah military leader Fuad Shukr and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh are a direct challenge to Iran and its proxy strategy. If Israel indeed stands behind Ismail Haniyeh's killing, Israel's security officials and intelligence community can claim a brilliant military and intelligence achievement in both cases. Israel is telling Iran and its proxies that if they don't stop, it won't hesitate to head into a full-scale war not only with Hizbullah, Hamas and the Houthis, but also with Tehran itself. In such a scenario, the home front will become the main front and will be subject to missile and kamikaze drone attacks launched not only from Lebanon and Yemen, but mainly from Iran. Israel will also likely face an Iranian attempt to deploy armed Shia fighters from Iran, Iraq and Syria into the conflict, and perhaps even Houthis from Yemen who will be transferred to Syria or join Hizbullah in Lebanon in attempts to carry out raids on the northern border. The Iranians correctly assume that Israel consulted with the U.S. before targeting Fuad Shukr. They assume that Washington approved this operation against someone who was partly responsible for the massacre of U.S. Marines in Beirut and was on the U.S. most wanted list. The Iranians also assume, probably correctly, that if they attack Israel as they did on April 14, they might face a U.S.-led coalition as a result. The Iranians prefer that a war take place when Iran already has operational nuclear weapons in hand. Then, it and its proxies would enjoy immunity like North Korea. Iran knows that the U.S. will be less likely to rush to Israel's aid once it has nuclear weapons. However, building a nuclear explosive device that can be mounted on a missile won't be ready for at least a year to a year and a half. Therefore, the timing for a full-scale war isn't convenient for Tehran right now. The targeting of Ismail Haniyeh deals a severe blow to Gazans and the Palestinians in general. It also proves that Tehran is, to a large extent, a paper tiger compared to Israel's intelligence, technological and aerial power. The same is true for the operation in Beirut.
2024-08-01 00:00:00
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