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Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Farzin Nadimi - The July 31 killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was both a major humiliation and a severe security and intelligence setback for the Iranian regime. Iran and Israel have been at war for more than four decades. On April 13, Iran launched a barrage of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directly from its territory. Although the attack did not trigger a major Israeli response, the combination of Israeli, U.S., and allied defensive measures prevented a catastrophe. The best outcome for the U.S. would be if Iran decides that the risks of attacking Israel are unacceptably high. By merely repeating the April 13 attack, Tehran would risk facing a prepared enemy while losing any remnant of surprise. Moreover, by most estimates, half of the ballistic missiles Iran did use failed on the way to their targets. With Iran's April 13 attack, Tehran has effectively created a precedent for launching direct missile attacks against Israel without facing deep consequences. Tehran needs to be unequivocally and credibly warned that any direct attacks against U.S. interests or allies will have serious consequences for the regime. While deploying defensive capabilities is undoubtedly important and contributes to deterring Iran, a credible offensive threat is crucial. The writer is a senior fellow with The Washington Institute, specializing in Iran and the Persian Gulf region.
2024-08-13 00:00:00
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