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Tehran Is Most Likely to Stand Down If Its Own Security Is at Risk

(New York Times) Dana Stroul - Since Iran's unprecedented attack on Israel in April 2024, the landscape in the Middle East has shifted sharply. For decades, Tehran has projected its military force across the region through a network of proxies and militias, a strategy intended to keep fighting out of its territory and to maintain some deniability. But in April, when Iran ignored Washington's warnings and directly attacked Israel for the first time, Iran moved the goal posts. An air defense coalition, which included the U.S., Israel and European and Arab partners, managed to intercept nearly all of Iran's attack drones, and most of Iran's missiles failed or were intercepted by Israel. But President Biden's efforts didn't stop Iran from attacking Israel in the spring; it is difficult to see how the same moves will be sufficient now. Tehran has paid no significant price for its actions. Tehran is most likely to stand down if its leaders perceive the regime's own security is at risk. Mr. Biden should consider signaling that he is ready to shift the use of American military force from targeting Iran's proxies to targeting inside Iran, such as weapons storage or production facilities. The additional forces and capabilities he has sent to the region could be used not only to defend Israel after an Iranian attack but also to punish Iran directly. Iran appears to be seeking to legitimize its use of force against Israel. If that's true, all those who want to prevent the big war should reject Iran's cynical play and prepare actions to break Iran's stranglehold over the region. The writer, Director of Research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East in 2021-23 in the Biden Administration.
2024-08-20 00:00:00
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