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Israel Is Winning

(Foreign Affairs) Maj. (ret.) John Spencer - Hamas's overarching goal is Israel's destruction - not a more moderate outcome to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, such as a two-state solution. Israel has formally declared a war of self-defense against Hamas with three strategic objectives: to recover all hostages, secure its borders, and destroy Hamas. After ten months of fighting, Hamas today has a fraction of the military power it had on Oct. 7. To achieve its war aims, Israel must destroy Hamas politically, which means removing the group as the governing power in Gaza. And it must destroy it militarily - dismantle and degrade the group's military capability to the point that it cannot conduct organized attacks or defend the territory it now controls. Israel has made significant progress degrading Hamas's military capabilities. The Israeli military says it has killed 17,000 of the estimated 30-40,000 Hamas militants, but the damage it has done to Hamas's combat power is greater than the raw numbers suggest. Combat power is a combination of leadership, command-and-control systems, trained units, weapon and equipment supplies, manufacturing capability, and infrastructure. In July, Israel conducted a strike that killed Mohammed Deif, the founder and head of Hamas's military wing; Hamas's third-highest-ranking member, Marwan Issa, was killed a few months earlier. Israel has destroyed 22 of Hamas's 24 organized battalions, killing three of five brigade commanders, more than 20 battalion commanders, and approximately 150 company commanders within these units, as well as taking out their weapon supplies and infrastructure. Gaza's border with Egypt is now under Israeli control, and Israeli forces are methodically finding and destroying cross-border tunnels. Without these routes through Egypt, Hamas is cut off from external military support. It is now Israel's responsibility to create the conditions that would allow a replacement for Hamas as the ruling power in Gaza. The first step is to reduce Hamas's capabilities enough to let an external force enter Gaza and provide security in population centers. As parts of Gaza are stabilized, the new authority can lead the postconflict work of deradicalization, disarmament, demobilization, and reconciliation. To realize a better future, Hamas must be destroyed with no hope of resurgence. The writer is chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point.
2024-08-22 00:00:00
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