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What the Latest Hizbullah-Israel Clash Reveals about Deterrence and Escalation

(Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Ben Fishman, Hanin Ghaddar, Assaf Orion, and Dennis Ross - On Aug. 25, Israel carried out large-scale preemptive strikes against Hizbullah targets in Lebanon, acting on intelligence that the group was preparing an imminent attack in retaliation for the killing of senior operative Fuad Shukr in the heart of Beirut. In the hours that followed, Hizbullah fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel, causing little damage. Hizbullah had delayed its retaliation for nearly a month. Its main obstacle has been the dominance of Israeli intelligence, which has enabled hundreds of damaging strikes on Hizbullah assets and uncovered its attack plan with enough lead time to organize and launch preemptive action. Hizbullah leaders realized that they have not only lost the element of surprise, but also failed to deter Israel by warning it about dire retaliation. U.S. deployments to the region have increased steadily since October and presumably deterred Hizbullah from opening a full-scale northern front when Israel's war with Hamas first erupted. Demonstrations of allied defensive power and coordination have likely boosted deterrence as well, as seen when the IDF, the U.S. military, and their partners intercepted nearly all of the missiles and drones Iran launched on April 13. Yet, if defensive responses are the only ones Washington is prepared to consider, then U.S. deterrence will inevitably erode, and Iran and its proxies will be incentivized to attack again. Deterrence only works if one party believes the other will use offensive force. At some point, the U.S. must demonstrate its willingness to take on one of Tehran's proxies. For example, the Houthis have effectively closed the Red Sea to the bulk of international shipping for months, despite U.S.-led defensive and limited offensive operations against the group.
2024-09-01 00:00:00
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