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The Future of Lebanon under Hizbullah's Control

(Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs) Col. (ret.) Dr. Jacques Neriah - Today's political reality in Lebanon does not resemble at all the situation that prevailed in 1990 when the Taif agreement signed between the three major communities ended the civil war that began in 1975. The main transformation involves the mounting power of Iran-founded Hizbullah and its growing grip on Lebanese politics. Hizbullah has made no secret of its ultimate goal of including Lebanon as the 32nd province of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Christian camp's consistent criticism of Hizbullah revolves around the fear that Hizbullah's potential to drag Lebanon into a war with Israel could lead to a catastrophic outcome for Lebanon. As a result, Hizbullah decided that the time had come to challenge the Christian dominance of Lebanese politics. This would mean that the Christian camp would lose significant positions such as the presidency, the army commander, and the parity between Christians and Muslims in the Lebanese parliament. This means Lebanon would lose its identity as a multi-cultural republic and become another Arab state affiliated with Iran, where the process of iranization of Lebanon will be accelerated. Hizbullah could then "invite" Iran to send troops to Lebanon to be deployed in south Lebanon, facing Israel, establishing a physical border between Iran and Israel that does not exist today. The writer, a special analyst at the Jerusalem Center, was formerly Deputy Head for Assessment of Israeli Military Intelligence.
2024-09-10 00:00:00
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