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(Foreign Affairs) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Assaf Orion - From the outset, "the Gaza war" was a misnomer. In some ways, this wider regional war is already at hand. Ever since Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists in what is already one of the longest wars since its founding. The day after Hamas's assault from Gaza, Hizbullah began attacking Israel from Lebanon. Shortly thereafter, the Houthis in Yemen also joined in. Meanwhile, Shiite militias in Iraq, and sometimes Syria, have also menaced Israel with drones and rockets. And in mid-April, Iran launched 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel, creating a new precedent for direct and open combat between the two countries. At the same time, Iran has been flooding the West Bank with funds and weapons to encourage terrorist attacks against Israel. Just as it took several wars and many decades for Israel to vanquish the threat of Arab coalitions, victory over the Iranian axis will require a prolonged struggle. The current war must be seen in relation to Iran's larger, long-term project to bleed out and destroy Israel. Sooner or later, Israel will have to address the Hizbullah threat in Lebanon. Optimally, it would do this by means of a carefully planned, preventive attack at a time of its choosing. If it becomes clear that Hizbullah is preparing for a major attack on Israel, it would be wise for Israel to consider another preemptive strike, but this time with much stronger signaling, including lethal force against a broader range of targets. To truly end the threat posed by the Houthis to international interests will require a collective approach that addresses the supply chain that is funneling Iranian support and weapons technology to the Houthis and by weakening the Houthis' power in Yemen by reinforcing their competitors. The writer, a former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division, is an international fellow with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 2024-09-15 00:00:00Full Article
Israel and the Coming Long War
(Foreign Affairs) Brig.-Gen. (ret.) Assaf Orion - From the outset, "the Gaza war" was a misnomer. In some ways, this wider regional war is already at hand. Ever since Hamas's Oct. 7 attack, Israel has faced not one but numerous antagonists in what is already one of the longest wars since its founding. The day after Hamas's assault from Gaza, Hizbullah began attacking Israel from Lebanon. Shortly thereafter, the Houthis in Yemen also joined in. Meanwhile, Shiite militias in Iraq, and sometimes Syria, have also menaced Israel with drones and rockets. And in mid-April, Iran launched 350 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel, creating a new precedent for direct and open combat between the two countries. At the same time, Iran has been flooding the West Bank with funds and weapons to encourage terrorist attacks against Israel. Just as it took several wars and many decades for Israel to vanquish the threat of Arab coalitions, victory over the Iranian axis will require a prolonged struggle. The current war must be seen in relation to Iran's larger, long-term project to bleed out and destroy Israel. Sooner or later, Israel will have to address the Hizbullah threat in Lebanon. Optimally, it would do this by means of a carefully planned, preventive attack at a time of its choosing. If it becomes clear that Hizbullah is preparing for a major attack on Israel, it would be wise for Israel to consider another preemptive strike, but this time with much stronger signaling, including lethal force against a broader range of targets. To truly end the threat posed by the Houthis to international interests will require a collective approach that addresses the supply chain that is funneling Iranian support and weapons technology to the Houthis and by weakening the Houthis' power in Yemen by reinforcing their competitors. The writer, a former head of the IDF Strategic Planning Division, is an international fellow with The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 2024-09-15 00:00:00Full Article
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