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Why Hizbullah and Israel Can't Make a Deal

(Atlantic) Hussein Ibish - Neither Iran nor Hizbullah has much to gain from a war with Israel in Lebanon, particularly one started on behalf of Hamas. For Iran, Hizbullah is a precious asset not to be wasted. Tehran sees the militia and its missiles as its prime deterrent against an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. To expend this capacity on Gaza would be irrational from an Iranian point of view. In addition, Sunni Hamas isn't nearly as important to Iran as Shiite Hizbullah is. Hamas's inclusion in Shiite Iran's "axis of resistance" is a marriage of convenience. So why doesn't Hizbullah accept a sensible settlement, like the one the Biden administration has spent the past year negotiating? Hizbullah maintains that it must remain in south Lebanon to protect the border area. This is the rather flimsy basis on which the militia group has been permitted to maintain its own army. Any formal understanding that pulls Hizbullah back from the border threatens the rationale for its existence as an armed group within Lebanon. The writer is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
2024-09-22 00:00:00
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