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How Would the U.S. Handle a Nuclear Iran?

(Wall Street Journal) Walter Russell Mead - Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, pleased both his American and Gulf Arab allies by refraining from attacks on Iran's nuclear sites and oil refineries. But deterrence was restored. Israeli warplanes didn't only cripple Iran's air-defense systems and inflict painful blows on its missile-producing facilities. They also sent a message that Israel knows where Tehran's strategic vulnerabilities are, and it can destroy them any time it wants. The strikes underlined a key point about the Middle East power balance. Military forces that have access to American military technology and intelligence-gathering capabilities can wipe the floor with militaries that rely on Moscow. Despite its spectacular achievements, Israel has a long way to go in this war. The fighting in Gaza has gone on much longer and has been far bloodier than Israel hoped, and Hizbullah is stubbornly resisting in the north. Iran's strategy of advancing its regional agenda by mobilizing proxies that threaten both Israel and the Gulf Arabs has been tested but not broken by the fighting so far. As long as the Islamic Republic of Iran remains a serious and implacably anti-Israel contender for hegemony across the Middle East, Israel needs American help in any long war with Iran. That's a big problem. Whoever wins next week's presidential election, the U.S. in 2025 will likely be more interested in avoiding a war in the Middle East than helping Israel deal with the mullahs once and for all. The writer, a fellow at the Hudson Institute, is Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College.
2024-10-29 00:00:00
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