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For U.S. Officials, Lebanon May Be a Problem Too Big to Solve

(New York Times) Michael Crowley - With faint hopes for ending the war in Gaza, U.S. officials have turned their focus to Lebanon to strike a ceasefire deal. So far, however, U.S. diplomacy has failed to stabilize the situation. Some senior U.S. officials have called Israel's campaign against Hizbullah an opportunity to reshape the politics of Beirut and stand up a stronger Lebanese government, reducing the influence of Hizbullah and its sponsor, Iran. An empowered Lebanese Army with strong government backing is the only way to keep Hizbullah from reconstituting along Israel's border and avoid further Israeli military action, officials and analysts say. To some, it is a fanciful goal. While Hizbullah is clearly weakened and Iran may feel intimidated by Israel's recent displays of military prowess, both retain influence that they are unlikely to surrender easily. U.S. officials are trying to find some way of assuring Israel that Hizbullah will not simply regroup after the current fighting ends. Amos Hochstein, a senior White House aide who serves as President Biden's point man for Lebanon, said the aftermath of this conflict "must be entirely different. Lebanon can be secure and prosperous and free. That is an attainable goal but will require international community support." Matthew Levitt, an expert on Hizbullah at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he expected that "Hizbullah is going to fight for their position in Lebanon....I just don't have faith that the government of Lebanon is going to get its stuff together and stand up to the militants. I think the Biden administration understands the limits of trying to move the chess pieces in Lebanon."
2024-11-07 00:00:00
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