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Iran after Trump's Reelection

(Institute for National Security Studies-Tel Aviv University) Sima Shine and Raz Zimmt - Donald Trump's reelection is a concerning scenario for Tehran. Iran's Kayhan newspaper, considered close to the Iranian leader, responded to the U.S. election results with an editorial titled "America Is the Great Satan - Irrespective of Who Is President." In Tehran, leaders are particularly concerned about the incoming administration's intention to return to the "maximum pressure" policy aimed at isolating Iran and financially weakening it through severe sanctions. In the short term, Iran must decide its response to the Israeli counterattack on Oct. 26. Israel has pledged to respond to any Iranian attack, which could target Iran's nuclear program or vital oil facilities. Refraining from a response, however, risking further erosion of Iran's deterrence power against Israel and potentially signaling weakness to its regional proxies and domestic support base. The option for dialogue with the American administration still exists. During his first term, President Trump expressed readiness to negotiate with Tehran in the fall of 2019, and during his recent campaign, Trump also declared his intention to pursue a new deal with Iran. Furthermore, Trump refrained from a military response to Iranian provocations, which included the attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities in September 2019. However, it remains doubtful whether Khamenei will be prepared to soften his position or agree to meaningful concessions on the nuclear program that would facilitate a settlement with the new administration, particularly one that the U.S. would consider a new and improved agreement. The growing influence of the Revolutionary Guards, who often adopt a more hawkish and defiant stance toward the West, heighten the risk of a more severe confrontation between Iran and the U.S. Sima Shine, director of the Iran and Shi'ite Axis program at INSS, served as Head of the Research & Evaluation Division of the Mossad. Dr. Raz Zimmt is a Senior Researcher at INSS.
2024-11-17 00:00:00
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