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Iran Rethinks Strategy amid Trump's Return to Power and Regional Shifts

(Jerusalem Post) Aviram Bellaishe - In the past few weeks, Iran has faced a dilemma regarding the timing of its response to Israel's Oct. 26 counterstrike, in light of the outcome of the U.S. elections. The election results have clearly unsettled the regime in Iran. Trump's previous term was marked by tough measures against Iran: the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and the sanctions on oil sales, which hit Iran's economy particularly hard. Trump's moves reflected his negotiation strategy of striking first and then forcing concessions from the other side, a strategy that, Iranian commentators say, sharply escalated U.S.-Iranian tensions. Iran is today weaker and more vulnerable in economic, social, and security terms than it was in 2016. The war that began on Oct. 7 has undone decades of Iran's buildup of its proxies and its military. Analysts believe Trump would enable Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to effectuate the total collapse of Hamas in Gaza and offer him freedom of action against Iran. While Trump is unpredictable, factors that clearly drive his Middle East policy include his unique personality; his close aides and his vice president; pro-Israel evangelical Christians; and his close ties with regional actors such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and Netanyahu. Tehran, therefore, is reconsidering its steps. The fear is that a further provocation of Trump might make him even more dangerous than four years ago. The writer, vice president for strategy, security, and communications at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, has served in senior government positions for over 25 years.
2024-11-17 00:00:00
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